Uzbekistán – FutureWater

The Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Program is a partnership of 11 countries from Central Asia, South Asia, the Caucasus, as well as Mongolia and the People’s Republic of China and works to increase regional cooperation to help the region shift to low carbon development pathways and build resilience against climate induced hazards. ADB hosts the CAREC secretariat and helps to facilitate projects that deliver regional benefits.

In 2017, CAREC introduced agriculture and water as a new pillar under the CAREC 2030 strategy to provide a conducive and trusted platform to foster regional cooperation and integration on water security. The water pillar was established in 2020 and its scope was devised in 2022. Since then, a number of activities and consultations with CAREC countries have been undertaken including provision of a long list of potential regional projects that could be financed by ADB.

In this project prefeasibility studies will be conducted for three selected priority projects:

Climate change adaptation through improving irrigation efficiency in the Aral Sea Basin
Climate Resiliency of Bakhri Tojik reservoir for improved irrigation and energy supply
Joint Automated Water Metering System in the Aral Sea Basin

The prefeasibility studies entail:

Technical, financial, economic, poverty and social analysis.
Environment, social, and indigenous people’s safeguards assessments.
Climate change assessments.
Financial management and procurement capacity assessments; and
Institutional set-up and project implementation arrangements.

For these prefeasibility studies FutureWater conducts the climate risk assessment.

Uzbekistan is one of the fastest-growing economies in Central Asia, driving a steady rise in energy demand. However, the country faces significant power shortages due to increasing consumption, declining efficiency of aging power plants, and mounting climate pressures, particularly in regions like Tashkent, Samarkand, and Sirdarya. In response, Uzbekistan is prioritizing renewable energy development, especially solar power, to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels. With its abundant sunlight, the country is well-positioned to harness solar energy, and several large-scale photovoltaic (PV) projects are currently in progress.

With the support of the Asian Development Bank, Uzbekistan aims to strengthen energy security and promote environmental sustainability by developing three solar PV plants (100 MW, 400 MW, and 500 MW), two substations, two battery energy storage system (BESS) facilities, and associated transmission lines across Samarkand, Bukhara, Jizzakh, Sirdarya, and Tashkent provinces. To identify the exposures and vulnerabilities of these project components to potential climate risks, FutureWater will utilize advanced downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensembles, along with relevant hazard data and local information, to conduct a rapid Climate Risk Assessment (CRA). The insights gained will enable the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to implement effective adaptation measures and ensure climate-resilient development.

The UNDP is implementing the project “Conservation and sustainable management of lakes, wetlands, and riparian corridors as pillars of a resilient and land degradation-neutral Aral basin landscape supporting sustainable livelihoods” to enhance the resilience of the ecosystems and livelihoods in Lower Amudarya and Aral Sea Basin (LADAB) through land degradation neutrality (LDN) compatible integrated land-water management.

This assignment contributes to water allocation analysis and the development of water supply scenarios for irrigated agriculture and biodiversity conservation reports. The services consist in:

Consulting with project experts, government agencies, local communities, and other relevant stakeholders
Develop a hydro-economic water allocation model for the lower Amu Darya basin using WEAP
Explore different scenarios for irrigated agriculture and biodiversity conservation, considering climate change, to strike a balance between sustainable agricultural practices and conservation of biodiversity and ecosystems and (iv) build capacity and support project experts and relevant stakeholders on water allocation analysis and modelling.

Stakeholders consultation in Nukus, Uzbekistan

The project prepares robust climate mitigation and adaptation pipelines aligned with the Paris Agreement and responsive to DMCs climate change priorities. The TA will support interventions on departmental, sectoral and country levels with key activities including development of a regional strategy, upstream climate assessments, climate pipeline development, government dialogues and capacity building. As part of this project, FutureWater conducts a regional climate risk assessment for ten countries. This includes an assessment of baseline and future climate hazards, exposure and vulnerability and addressing sectoral impacts and adaptation options for a wide range of sectors. In addition country profiles summarizing climate risks for the ten countries are generated. The reginal climate risk assessment feeds into the climate strategy.

With over 1,850 km of 500kV lines, 6,200 km of 220kV lines and 15,300 km of 110kV lines, the power transmission system in Uzbekistan is facing challenges with respect to deteriorating infrastructure and unreliable power supply. To address these issues, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) is assisting the Government of Uzbekistan through the “Uzbekistan Power Transmission Improvement Project” which aims to: i) improve the power transmission network capacity and reliability in the northwest region of the country, ii) reduce transmission losses, and iii) improve the operational efficiency of the power sector. This will be done through the i) construction of a new 220kV single-circuit overhead transmission line spanning over 364 km, ii) expansion, rehabilitation, and construction of 3 substations and iii) capacity building and institutional development.

Additionally, given the growing impacts of climate change in the region, FutureWater has been assigned to carry out a climate risk and adaptation assessment for 12 transmission lines and 2 substations in the country. FutureWater will make use of state-of-the-art downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensembles, and other relevant hazards and local information to develop this CRA. The insights from this assessment will enable ADB to justify climate financing for further enhancing the climate resilience of the grid system. Moreover, through the adoption of climate-resilient technologies and adaptation measures based on the climate risk assessment, the country will be able to cut down on their GHG emissions and ensure uninterrupted power supply in light of a changing climate. This will be complimented by deriving adaptation costs to justify the need for climate financing. In addition, FutureWater will also be reviewing the existing meteorological monitoring network and recommending additional potential monitoring sites for improved surveillance in the country.

With a target to increase the gross domestic product from $70 billion in 2021 to $160 billion by 2030, the Government of Uzbekistan is taking steps to ensure that it will be able to meet the spike in electricity demand which is expected to double by 2030. Initiatives include installing an additional 17 gigawatts capacity to the existing available capacity of 12.9 GW, out of which 8 GW will be from renewable energy projects. Currently, the distribution system in Uzbekistan comprises of more than 260,000 kilometers of 0.4-110 kV networks, 1,655 substations and more than 86,000 transformer points. However, more than 50% of the lines have been operational for 30 years and 30% of the substation transformers are in dire need of rehabilitation. Therefore, the Asian Development Bank is working closely with the Joint Stock Company Regional Electric Power Networks (JSC REPN) to: i) Rehabilitate and modernize the distribution substations, ii) Rehabilitate associated distribution lines, and iii) Enhance the institutional capacity for financial sustainability and climate resiliency.

These rehabilitation efforts will also take into account and address the growing impacts of climate change in the region. For this, FutureWater has been assigned to carry out a climate risk and adaptation assessment (CRA). FutureWater will make use of state-of-the-art downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensembles, and other relevant hazards and local information to develop this CRA. Insights from the CRA will be used to devise adaptation strategies. Additionally, FutureWater will be reviewing the existing meteorological monitoring network and recommending additional potential monitoring sites for improved surveillance in the country. To further assist the Government of Uzbekistan actualize its second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) agenda which seeks to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit of GDP by 35% (compared to the level in 2010), by the year 2030, FutureWater will also develop a GHG account and prepare a Paris Agreement alignment assessment.

En las últimas décadas, la gestión eficiente de los recursos hídricos ha sido un elemento importante de las políticas hídricas de la UE, un tema que recibe una atención renovada en la Estrategia de Adaptación de la UE revisada en 2021, que destaca la necesidad de un enfoque basado en el conocimiento hacia tecnologías e instrumentos de ahorro de agua, como la asignación eficiente de recursos hídricos. El informe especial del IPCC sobre los océanos y la criosfera en un clima cambiante (2019) destaca la combinación de la gobernanza del agua y los riesgos climáticos como posibles causas de tensiones sobre los recursos hídricos escasos dentro y a través de las fronteras, especialmente debido a la competencia entre la demanda de energía hidroeléctrica y riego en cuencas hidrográficas transfronterizas alimentadas por glaciares y nieve en Asia Central.

El enfoque innovador de WE-ACT consiste en dos acciones de innovación complementarias: la primera es el desarrollo de una cadena de datos para un sistema de información hídrica fiable, que a su vez permite la segunda, a saber, el diseño y la implementación de un sistema de apoyo a la toma de decisiones (DSS) para la asignación de agua. La cadena de datos para el sistema de información hídrica fiable se compone de tecnología de monitoreo hidrometeorológico y glaciológico in situ en tiempo real, modelización del sistema hídrico (incluida la modelización de la oferta y demanda de agua y evaluaciones de la huella hídrica) y balance de masa glaciar, tecnología de almacenamiento de datos y aprendizaje automático.

La implementación del DSS para la asignación de agua informada por el riesgo climático incluye análisis de actores e instituciones, métodos de valoración del agua, configuración del sistema de información hídrica para permitir una interfaz fácil de usar, desarrollo de casos de uso para la asignación de agua y retroalimentación sobre el uso del agua a través de diálogos políticos nacionales.

El trabajo de FutureWater dentro del estudio WE-ACT se centrará en estimar la demanda de agua y las huellas hídricas de los diferentes usuarios y actividades dentro de la cuenca del río Syr Darya. Por lo tanto, se evaluarán los efectos de la asignación de agua sobre las huellas hídricas, la demanda de agua insatisfecha y las violaciones del caudal ambiental mediante el uso de un conjunto de modelos hidrológicos como SPHY y modelos de asignación de agua (WEAP). Esto se realizará tanto para la situación actual como para escenarios futuros.

Para obtener más información, puede visitar el sitio web del proyecto WE-ACT.

Uzbekistan is highly sensitive to climate change which will cause changes in the water flows and distribution: water availability, use, reuse and return flows will be altered in many ways due to upstream changes in the high mountain regions, but also changes in water demand and use across the river basin. The resulting changes in intra-annual and seasonal variability will affect water security of Uzbekistan. Besides, climate change will increase extreme events which pose a risk to existing water resources infrastructure. An integrated climate adaptation approach is required to make the water resources system and the water users, including the environment, climate resilient.

This project will support the Ministry of Water Resources (MWR) of Uzbekistan in identifying key priorities for climate adaptation in the Amu Darya river basin and support the identification of investment areas within Amu Darya river basin. The work will be based on a basin-wide climate change risk assessment as well as on the government priorities with an explicit focus on reducing systemic vulnerability to climate change.

The project will undertake:

Climate change risk analysis and mapping on key water-related sectors, impacts on rural livelihoods, and critical water infrastructures.
Climate change adaptation strategic planning and identify barriers in scaling up adaptation measures at multiple scales with stakeholder consultation and capacity building approach.
Identification of priority measures and portfolios for integration into subproject development as well as for future adaptation investment in the Amu Darya river basin. The identification will cover shortlisting of potential investments, screening of economic feasibility, and potential funding opportunities.

FutureWater leads this assignment and develops the climate risk hotspot analysis, and coordinates the contribution of international and national experts, as well as the stakeholder consultation process.

El Banco Asiático de Desarrollo (ADB) busca desarrollar una nueva herramienta para la evaluación y cribado de riesgos climáticos y de desastres que reemplace la herramienta actualmente en uso. La herramienta de próxima generación incorporará las lecciones aprendidas a lo largo de casi diez años de actividades del ADB destinadas a mejorar la resiliencia climática y ante desastres de las inversiones del ADB, incluyendo aportes de una amplia gama de empleados y consultores del ADB.

La herramienta se diseñará para proporcionar una evaluación científicamente creíble y específica para el contexto de los proyectos, que permita identificar riesgos asociados al clima, el cambio climático y una variedad de peligros geofísicos en la etapa conceptual del proyecto. Esto servirá para guiar actividades posteriores, incluyendo el diseño de estrategias e intervenciones de adaptación y resiliencia.

La herramienta de próxima generación ofrecerá un mayor acceso a los datos subyacentes, mayor flexibilidad en la exploración de riesgos específicos iniciada por el usuario, y un mayor alcance para evaluar proyectos espacialmente más complejos, como redes viales y redes eléctricas. La herramienta también incluirá un módulo que permitirá generar de manera semi-automática una evaluación ligera de Riesgos Climáticos y Adaptación (CRA). Los módulos futuros respaldarán la alineación con el Acuerdo de París y la finalización automatizada de las secciones aplicables de la evaluación de adaptación (BB2), y se ampliarán para proporcionar una base para evaluaciones más detalladas de riesgos climáticos y de adaptación, según corresponda.

La metodología detrás de la herramienta está siendo desarrollada por un equipo especializado de expertos, en el que FutureWater aporta su experiencia en datos climáticos y de peligros, proyecciones de modelos climáticos y evaluaciones de riesgos climáticos. La metodología se basa en un proceso iterativo y consultivo con un grupo externo de expertos, empleados del ADB y especialistas en desarrollo de software y diseño de experiencia del usuario. Esta metodología define el cálculo del riesgo en función de datos espaciales y del proyecto sobre peligros, exposición y vulnerabilidad, así como de las entradas proporcionadas por los usuarios.

La herramienta también estará disponible para los países miembros del ADB. Dos proyectos piloto en Laos y Uzbekistán garantizarán que la herramienta se alinee con sus requisitos y conjuntos de datos.

FutureWater está involucrado en la validación de la metodología en estos países piloto y en el desarrollo de informes de ejemplo sobre la evaluación de riesgos y CRA.